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Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
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001  MAP20160022117
003  MAP
005  20160817142240.0
008  160712e20160601usa|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20160008838‎$a‎Getzen, Thomas E.
24510‎$a‎Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs‎$c‎Thomas E. Getzen
520  ‎$a‎The Office of the Actuary, mandated to provide projections of future medical spending for use by the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid programs, publishes forecasts that have been widely used by private firms and government budget officials as a baseline for expected long-run premium trends and to estimate liabilities for retiree health benefits. Although these projections have been made publicly available since 1986, they have not yet been subject to systematic evaluation by an external reviewer. This article develops a method for assessment of both short- and long-run accuracy and applies it to the 17 sets of projections have been made public over the last 25 years.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080602437‎$a‎Matemática del seguro
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20120011137‎$a‎Predicciones estadísticas
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20130012056‎$a‎Gastos médicos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080548100‎$a‎Medicaid
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080548117‎$a‎Medicare
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080629526‎$a‎Presupuestos Generales del Estado
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20120019492‎$a‎Tendencias
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20130014791‎$a‎Proyecciones
651 1‎$0‎MAPA20080638337‎$a‎Estados Unidos
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000239‎$t‎North American actuarial journal‎$d‎Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-‎$x‎1092-0277‎$g‎01/06/2016 Tomo 20 Número 2 - 2016 , p. 101-113