Search

A Bühlmann credibility approach to modeling Mortality Rates

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20170033219</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20171103133232.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">171017e20170605esp|||p      |0|||b|spa d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">6</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20150010858</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Chi-Liang Tsai, Cary</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="2">
      <subfield code="a">A Bühlmann credibility approach to modeling Mortality Rates</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Cary Chi-Liang Tsai, Tzuling Lin</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">In this article, we first propose a Bühlmann nonparametric credibility approach to forecasting mortality rates, and we then compare forecasting performances between the proposed Bühlmann approach and the Lee-Carter/Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD) models. Empirical results based on mortality data for both genders of Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States with two age spans, a wide range of fitting year spans, and three forecasting periods show that the credibility approach contributes to much better forecasting performances measured by the mean absolute percentage error. Moreover, we give an informative credibility interpretation regarding the average decrements of an individual time trend for age x and a group time trend for all ages, and we discuss the effects of the slope and intercept of the linear functions for the forecasted mortality rates under the proposed Bühlmann nonparametric credibility approach and the Lee-Carter/CBD models. Finally, we also estimate the parameters of the Bühlmann credibility approach in a semiparametric framework, and we provide a stochastic version of forecasting mortality rates for the Bühlmann credibility approach.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080592011</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Modelos actuariales</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080579258</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Cálculo actuarial</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080611613</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Modelos probabílisticos</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080555306</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Mortalidad</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20077000239</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">North American actuarial journal</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-</subfield>
      <subfield code="x">1092-0277</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">05/06/2017 Tomo 21 Número 2 - 2017 , p. 204-227</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>