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Stochastic claims reserving via a Bayesian Spline Model with random loss ratio effects

Recurso electrónico / electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20180005459
003  MAP
005  20180320110213.0
008  180223e20180101bel|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20180001918‎$a‎Gao, Guangyuan
24510‎$a‎Stochastic claims reserving via a Bayesian Spline Model with random loss ratio effects‎$c‎Guangyuan Gao, Shengwang Meng
520  ‎$a‎We propose a Bayesian spline model which uses a natural cubic B-spline basis with knots placed at every development period to estimate the unpaid claims. Analogous to the smoothing parameter in a smoothing spline, shrinkage priors are assumed for the coefficients of basis functions. The accident period effect is modeled as a random effect, which facilitate the prediction in a new accident period. For model inference, we use Stan to implement the no-U-turn sampler, an automatically tuned Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The proposed model is applied to the workers' compensation insurance data in the United States. The lower triangle data is used to validate the model.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080586447‎$a‎Modelo estocástico
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080597733‎$a‎Modelos estadísticos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080603120‎$a‎Procesos estocásticos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080602437‎$a‎Matemática del seguro
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20180003103‎$a‎Meng, Shengwang
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000420‎$t‎Astin bulletin‎$d‎Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association‎$x‎0515-0361‎$g‎01/01/2018 Volumen 48 Número 1 - enero 2018