Centro de Documentación de Fundación MAPFRE - Dynamic frailty count process in insurance : a unified framework for estimation, pricing and forecasting

Notes: Sumario: We study count processes in insurance, in which the underlying risk factor is time varying and unobservable. The factor follows an autoregressive gamma process, and the resulting model generalizes the static Poisson-Gamma model and allows for closed form expression for the posterior Bayes (linear or nonlinear) premium. Moreover, the estimation and forecasting can be conducted within the same framework in a rather efficient way. An example of automobile insurance pricing illustrates the ability of the model to capture the duration dependent, nonlinear impact of past claims on future ones and the improvement of the Bayes pricing method compared to the linear credibility approachRelated records: En: The Journal of risk and insurance. - Nueva York : The American Risk and Insurance Association, 1964- = ISSN 0022-4367. - 03/12/2018 Volumen 85 Número 4 - diciembre 2018 , p. 1083-1102Materia / lugar / evento: Gerencia de riesgos Modelos predictivos Administración de empresas Empresas de seguros Matemática del seguro Procesos de medición Other categories: 7

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