Economic and financial risk insights

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      <subfield code="a">Global growth continues to slow, and the manufacturing contraction across many regions has spread to the US. Forwardlooking business investment indicators more broadly are also worrisome. For now, the services segment remains more resilient, so key to watch is any contagion from the weakness in manufacturing. Regionally, 50% of the EU economies, still including the UK, are contracting in Q2. We have lowered our growth forecasts for the EU and UK, for 2020 and 2019/20, respectively. Among the G7, we expect Germany to be the first to fall into a technical recession; risks of a broader downturn are rising. We continue to see a 35% risk of a US recession in 2020. In China, the risk of hard landing remains at 15% amid several supportive policy measures. </subfield>
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