Global trade : recession confirmed, watch out for a double-whammy blow due to protectionism

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      <subfield code="a">Q1's strongest contraction in merchandise trade since Q1 2009 is only the first part of the story. Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction. Indeed, April could post a -13% y/y drop. Overall trade contracted -2.5% q/q in Q1 as March posted a third straight negative figure (-1.4% m/m and -4.3% y/y). In March, China's exports rebounded by +12.4% m/m (+2.3% y/y) as the economy restarted, while the Euro area suffered the largest blow, -7.7% m/m (-10% y/y), as its largest economies were on pause. We expect the trough to be reached in Q2, with half of global GDP under lockdown in April and Chinese exports stuttering in search of missing demand, as shown by even weaker export orders.</subfield>
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