Risk, resilience, and rebalancing in global value chains

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      <subfield code="a">This report explores the rebalancing act facing many companies in goods-producing value chains as they seek to get a handle on risk. Our focus is not on ongoing business challenges such as shifting customer demand and suppliers failing to deliver, nor on ongoing trends such as digitization and automation. Instead, we consider risks that manifest from exposure to the most profound shocks, such as financial crises, terrorism, extreme weather, and, yes, pandemics. The risk facing any particular industry value chain reflects its level of exposure to different types of shocks, plus the underlying vulnerabilities of a particular company or in the value chain as a whole. We therefore examine the growing frequency and severity of a range of shocks, assess how different value chains are exposed, and examine the factors in operations and supply chains that can magnify disruption and losses. Adjusted for the probability and frequency of disruptions, companies can expect to lose more than 40 percent of a year's profits every decade, based on a model informed by the financials of 325 companies across 13 industries. However, a single severe shock causing a 100-day disruption could wipe out an entire year's earnings or more in some industriesand events of this magnitude can and do occur.</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Executive summary -- Understanding shocks and evaluating exposure - Vulnerabilities within companies and value chains -- The high cost of disruptions -- Geographic rebalancing of trade flows -- Building resilience -- Technical appendix -- Bibliography</subfield>
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