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R&D-driven medical progress, health care costs, and the future of human longevity

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
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003  MAP
005  20210405202057.0
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040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎931
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20210005220‎$a‎Böhm, Sebastian
24510‎$a‎R&D-driven medical progress, health care costs, and the future of human longevity‎$c‎Sebastian Böhm, Volker Grossmann, Holger Strulik
520  ‎$a‎We set up a life-cycle model of gerontologically founded human aging with overlapping generations to make quantitative inferences about the future development of morbidity, life expectancy, and the health expenditure share in GDP, conditional on the extent of future access to health care. Importantly, we take into account the endogeneity of medical technology to health good demand. For the baseline policy scenario of health care access, the calibrated model predicts substantial future increases in health and life expectancy, associated with rising shares of health expenditure in GDP. Fixing the expenditure share at the 2020 level severely reduces potential gains in health, longevity and welfare; for example, reducing the gains in life-xpectancy at age 65 by about 4 years in the year 2050. Perhaps surprisingly, young individuals (i.e. those who would save the most health care contributions) would suffer the greatest losses in terms of life expectancy and welfare. These results reflect reduced incentives for medical R&D.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080567262‎$a‎Salud pública
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080555016‎$a‎Longevidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579784‎$a‎Costes económicos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080612092‎$a‎Producto interior bruto
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20210005237‎$a‎Grossmann, Volker
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20210005244‎$a‎Strulik, Holger
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20210010194‎$t‎The Journal of the economics of ageing ‎$d‎Oxford : Elsevier ScienceDirect, 2021-‎$g‎01/02/2021 Volumen 18 - 2021 , 18 p.