A Multi-state model of functional disability and health status in the presence of systematic trend and uncertainty

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20210010767</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20210405172758.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">210331e20210301esp|||p      |0|||b|spa d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">6</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080179083</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Sherris, Michael</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="2">
      <subfield code="a">A Multi-state model of functional disability and health status in the presence of systematic trend and uncertainty</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Michael Sherris, Pengyu Wei</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">This article proposes a multi-state model of both functional disability and health status in the presence of systematic trend and uncertainty. We classify each individual observation along two dimensions health status (other than disability) and disabilityand use the multi-state latent factor intensity model to estimate the transition rates. The model is then used to calculate (healthy) life expectancy and price a variety of insurance products. We illustrate the importance of various factors and quantify the potential losses from model misspecification. Our results suggest that insurers should pay great attention to health status, trend, and systematic uncertainty in disability/mortality modeling and insurance pricing. We also find that integrating long-term care (LTC) insurance with a life annuity can help to reduce systematic uncertainties.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080579258</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Cálculo actuarial</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080592042</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Modelos matemáticos</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080562144</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Discapacidad</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080590567</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Empresas de seguros</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20210005350</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Wei, Pengyu</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20077000239</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">North American actuarial journal</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-</subfield>
      <subfield code="x">1092-0277</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">01/03/2021 Tomo 25 Número 1 - 2021 , p. 17-39</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>