Pricing longevity-linked securities in the presence of mortality trend changes

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<title>Pricing longevity-linked securities in the presence of mortality trend changes</title>
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<namePart>Freimann, Arne</namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Even though the trend in mortality improvements has experienced several permanent changes in the past, the uncertainty regarding future mortality trends is often left unmodeled when pricing longevity-linked securities. In this paper, we present a stochastic modeling framework for the valuation of longevity-linked securities which explicitly considers the risk of random future changes in the long-term mortality trend. We construct a set of meaningful probability distortions which imply equivalent risk-adjusted pricing measures under which the basic model structure is preserved. Inspired by risk-based capital requirements for (re)insurers, we also establish a cost-of-capital pricing approach which then serves as the appropriate reference framework for finding a reasonable range for the market price of longevity risk. In a numerical application, we demonstrate that our model produces plausible risk loadings and show that a greater proportion of the risk loading is allocated to longer maturities when the risk of random future mortality trend changes is adequately modeled.</abstract>
<accessCondition type="use and reproduction">La copia digital se distribuye bajo licencia "Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0)"</accessCondition>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Arne Freimann</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080555016">
<topic>Longevidad</topic>
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<topic>Mortalidad</topic>
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<topic>Productos de seguros</topic>
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<topic>Seguros vinculados a valores</topic>
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<topic>Tarificación</topic>
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<topic>Matemática del seguro</topic>
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<title>Astin bulletin</title>
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<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
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<text>10/05/2021 Volumen 51 Número 2 - mayo 2021 , p.  411-447</text>
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