Covid scars and political rivalry : Asian trade at a crossroads

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      <subfield code="a">A year and a half after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, Asia is looking ahead. The economic recovery has started and companies are trying to normalise their operations. However, the business environment seems more risky than it was a few years ago. What is the long-term impact of the pandemic? What will public and business leaders do now that Covid-19 and the trade war have raised their awareness of the vulnerability of global supply chains? In this publication, we first look at the impact of the most recent Covid-19 wave on macroeconomic developments in the region. It turns out that the economic recovery is slowing only temporarily, and the most in the countries with relatively low vaccination rates. Exports are an important driver of the economic recovery in several, but not all countries. In the second part, we take a closer look at the outlook for foreign trade, focusing on supply chain disruptions, the scars from the pandemic and the effects of the trade war. The pandemic has raised internationally operating companies' awareness of the vulnerability of their supply chains. They must weigh financial and economic considerations against their goal of mitigating risks. Meanwhile, the ongoing US-China trade war is impacting supply chains. Looking at trade flows, we have investigated the extent to which there is a decoupling of the Chinese and US economies. Our base scenario, also outlined in the (Global) Economic Outlook published in August, is that the economic recovery, both globally and in Asia, will continue. Foreign trade in Asia will also pick up, and in many countries will be the main driver of growth. However, besides new, more transmissible Covid-19 variants, lasting scars from the pandemic and geopolitical rivalry are bringing a less favourable long-term scenario closer. Whether corporate decision-makers opt for optimal efficiency or for reducing vulnerability, and whether governments choose cooperation over rivalry, Will have a significant impact on future trade patterns in the region and beyond</subfield>
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