Centro de Documentación de Fundación MAPFRE - Turbulence after lift-off : global economic and insurance market outlook 2022-23

MAP20210032806

Turbulence after lift-off : global economic and insurance market outlook 2022-23. — Zurich : Swiss Re Institute, 2021

42 p . — (Sigma ; No 5 /2021)

Sumario: The world economy is making a strong recovery from the COVID-19 shock and the outlook is positive. However, peak growth is behind us and this cyclical recovery is not a structural one. We forecast global real economic growth of 5.6% in 2021, 4.1% in 2022 and 3.0% in 2023. The recovery will be uneven, with risks tilted to the downside. Supply-side shocks, including global supply chain issues, labour shortages and energy shortages, may persist, while monetary policy is becoming less accommodative. Inflation is our number one near-term macro risk and we expect it to be elevated for some time, stemming from the same supply-side factors that are constraining growth. Pressure is starting to feed into slower-moving but harder to reverse areas such as rent and wages. We expect these headwinds to weigh on the outlook in 2022 and 2023, making structural healing - the policies that work to reverse the permanent negative impacts of the pandemic on the economy - difficult. — Ámbito geográfico: Internacional

1. Mercado de seguros . 2. Perspectivas del seguro . 3. Perspectivas económicas . 4. Recuperación económica . 5. Tendencias . I. Swiss Re Institute . II. Sigma . III. Title.