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Valid Model-Free Prediction of Future Insurance Claims

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20220000628
003  MAP
005  20220113161355.0
008  220113e20211206esp|||p |0|||b|spa d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20150005984‎$a‎Hong, Liang
24510‎$a‎Valid Model-Free Prediction of Future Insurance Claims‎$c‎Liang Hong, Ryan Martin
520  ‎$a‎Bias resulting from model misspecification is a concern when predicting insurance claims. Indeed, this bias puts the insurer at risk of making invalid or unreliable predictions. A method that could provide provably valid predictions uniformly across a large class of possible distributions would effectively eliminate the risk of model misspecification bias. Conformal prediction is one such method that can meet this need, and here we tailor that approach to the typical insurance application and show that the predictions are not only valid but also efficient across a wide range of settings.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20120011137‎$a‎Predicciones estadísticas
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591953‎$a‎Métodos actuariales
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20170014706‎$a‎Martín, Ryan
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000239‎$g‎06/12/2021 Tomo 25 Número 4 - 2021 , p. 473-483‎$x‎1092-0277‎$t‎North American actuarial journal‎$d‎Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-