Economic insights : illusions of stability : when financial market pricing doesn't tell the whole story

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      <subfield code="a">Current US financial market pricing does not signal expectations of recession. Amid the fastest and ongoing interest rate hiking cycle in over 40 years, we continue to expect a US recession in the second half. As financial market functioning has deteriorated over the past years, markets are not only vulnerable to a repricing of recession risks, but also prone to additional volatility spikes</subfield>
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