Population ageing and the productivity of public capital: A panel cointegration analysis of Japanese prefectural data

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<title>Population ageing and the productivity of public capital: A panel cointegration analysis of Japanese prefectural data</title>
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<namePart>Kameda, Keigo</namePart>
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<namePart>School of Policy Studies, Kwansei Gakuin University</namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">This paper examines how population aging affects the long-run productivity of public capital using Japanese prefectural data from 19812020. Employing panel cointegration techniques (AMG and CCEMG estimators), the study estimates output elasticities of public capital within a production-function framework. Results reveal an inverted U-shaped relationship between aging and public capital productivity: highest in moderately aging regions and lowest in both younger and highly aged areas. Sectoral analysis shows that transportation infrastructure suffers from diminishing returns in aged regions due to overinvestment and lower land prices, while education infrastructure faces inefficiencies from dispersed schools and human capital outflows. Findings underscore the need for demographic-sensitive public investment strategies, emphasizing consolidation and optimization in aged areas and careful evaluation of new projects in younger regions.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Keigo Kameda ... [et al.]</note>
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<topic>Demografía</topic>
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<geographic>Japón</geographic>
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<url displayLabel="electronic resource" usage="primary display">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100636</url>
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<title>The Journal of the economics of ageing</title>
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<publisher>Oxford : Elsevier ScienceDirect, 2021-</publisher>
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<identifier type="local">MAP20210010194</identifier>
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<text>13/04/2026 Volumen 34 - 2026 </text>
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