The Impact of demographic change on aggregate final consumption : Japan's experiences and prospects from a national accounting perspective

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<title>Impact of demographic change on aggregate final consumption : Japan's experiences and prospects from a national accounting perspective</title>
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<namePart>Waldenberger, Franz</namePart>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Using the accounting methodology of the Statistics of National Accounts, this paper analyzes Japan's macroeconomic performance under demographic change from 1994 to 2023, when the working-age population share declined from 69.9% to 59.5% and the population aged 65+ more than doubled. Despite demographic pressure, per capita final consumption rose by 40%, supported by productivity growth and increased employment rates. The paper examines adjustments in labor supply, saving, and investment, and projects moderate future impacts of aging on working hours, offset by productivity gains. It argues that Japan can sustain per capita consumption growth until 2070 by utilizing accumulated capital and running trade deficits, given its large net foreign assets.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Franz Waldenberger</note>
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<topic>Demografía</topic>
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<topic>Crecimiento económico</topic>
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<topic>Política económica</topic>
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<geographic>Japón</geographic>
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<url displayLabel="electronic resource" usage="primary display">https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeoa.2026.100620</url>
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<title>The Journal of the economics of ageing</title>
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<publisher>Oxford : Elsevier ScienceDirect, 2021-</publisher>
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<identifier type="local">MAP20210010194</identifier>
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<text>13/04/2026 Volumen 34 - 2026 </text>
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