Global trade : COVID-19 losses equivalent to a return to 1994 tariffs

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      <subfield code="a">Global trade could remain below 90% of its pre-crisis level even after lockdowns are lifted ond only recover gradually in H2 2020. We estímate that lockdowns and the uncoordinated deconfinement could cost merchandise trade USD2.4tn, the same as if all countries hiked their tariffs to 17%, i.e. close to levels last seen in 1994. Computer and electronics, metals and mining, transportation, electrical equipment and textiles are most at risk of continued supply chain disruption during deconfinement. In terms of countries, companies operating in China, the U.S., Germany, France, lreland, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlonds are most at risk. Watch out for old-school protectionism, which could recreate 2019 uncertainty and harm the investment recovery as U.S.-China tensions flare up; wipe out USD30bn of trade in Covid-19 related equipment and act as o crisis amplifier for emerging and developing countries.</subfield>
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