The Irony of biden's super stimulus : USD 360BN for exporters around the world

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      <subfield code="a">The Irony of biden's super stimulus</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The USD1.9tn stimulus in the US will lead to an additional rise in imports of goods and services of USD360bn over 2021-2022. President Biden's stimulus package won final approval in Congress last week, and it is set to create a positive confidence effect on domestic demand. We are thus revising up our GDP growth projections for the US, to 5.3% y/y in 2021 (from +3.6% expected in December 2020) and +3.8% in 2022 (from +3.1%), after a -3.5% contraction in 2020. We now forecast the unemployment rate to reach 4.3% at 2022-end (vs. 6.2% in February 2021), meaning that households' excess savings accumulated during the crisis should be released faster than expected. We expect US households' savings rate to reach 7% of gross disposable income at 2022-end (vs. 20.5% in January 2021). The stimulus will also boost business confidence, supporting nonresidential investment. This increase in domestic demand will not be fully absorbed by US producers. We expect the US trade deficit to widen to 4.5% of GDP on average over 2021-2022, compared with 2.9% on average over the past five years. More precisely, we estimate that a +1% increase in domestic demand leads to a +2.6% rise in imports in the US</subfield>
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