Global trade report : battling out of supply-chain disruptions

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<subTitle>: battling out of supply-chain disruptions</subTitle>
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<dateIssued>2021</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Global supply-chain disruptions will remain high until H2 2022, on the back of renewed Covid-19 outbreaks globally, China's continued zero-Covid policy and demand and logistic volatility during Chinese New Year. After exceptionally strong performance since H2 2020, global trade of goods contracted in Q3. We find that production shortfalls are behind 75% of the current contraction in the global volume of trade, with the rest explained by logistic bottlenecks. In this context, a soft recovery in Q4 2021 is likely (+0.8% q/q after -1.1% in Q3 for trade in goods) but there is a risk of a double-dip in Q1 2022 as volatility in trade flows should remain the norm until the spring. Looking ahead, three factors will drive the normalization of trade from H2 2022: 1) A cooling down of consumer spending on durable goods, given their longer replacement cycles and the shift towards sustainable consumption behaviors. 2) Less acute input shortages as inventories have returned to or even exceeded pre-crisis levels in most sectors and capex has increased (mainly in the US). 3) Reduced shipping congestions as capacity increases.</abstract>
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