Why risk analysis is difficult, and some thoughts on how to proceed

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      <subfield code="a">Why risk analysis is difficult, and some thoughts on how to proceed</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Yakov Ben-Haim</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Risk analysis is challenged in three ways by uncertainty. Our understanding of the world and its uncertainties is evolving; indeterminism is an inherent part of the open universe in which we live; and learning from experience involves untestable assumptions. We discuss several concepts of robustness as tools for responding to these epistemological challenges. The use of models is justified, even though they are known to err. A concept of robustness is illustrated in choosing between a conventional technology and an innovative, promising, but more uncertain technology. We explain that nonprobabilistic robust decisions are sometimes good probabilistic bets. Info-gap and worst-case concepts of robustness are compared. Finally, we examine the exploitation of favorable but uncertain opportunities and its relation to robust decision making.</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Gerencia de riesgos</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Análisis de riesgos</subfield>
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      <subfield code="0">MAPA20080588434</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Toma de decisiones</subfield>
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      <subfield code="t">Risk analysis : an international journal</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015</subfield>
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      <subfield code="g">08/10/2012 Volumen 32 Número 10  - octubre 2012 , p. 1638-1646</subfield>
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