Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks

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<dc:creator>Tonn, Bruce</dc:creator>
<dc:date>2013-10-07</dc:date>
<dc:description xml:lang="es">Sumario: Researchers and commissions contend that the risk of human extinction is high, but none of these estimates have been based upon a rigorous methodology suitable for estimating existential risks. This article evaluates several methods that could be used to estimate the probability of human extinction. Traditional methods evaluated include: simple elicitation; whole evidence Bayesian; evidential reasoning using imprecise probabilities; and Bayesian networks. Three innovative methods are also considered: influence modeling based on environmental scans; simple elicitation using extinction scenarios as anchors; and computationally intensive possible-worlds modeling. Evaluation criteria include: level of effort required by the probability assessors; level of effort needed to implement the method; ability of each method to model the human extinction event; ability to incorporate scientific estimates of contributory events; transparency of the inputs and outputs; acceptability to the academic community (e.g., with respect to intellectual soundness, familiarity, verisimilitude); credibility and utility of the outputs of the method to the policy community; difficulty of communicating the method's processes and outputs to nonexperts; and accuracy in other contexts. The article concludes by recommending that researchers assess the risks of human extinction by combining these methods.</dc:description>
<dc:identifier>https://documentacion.fundacionmapfre.org/documentacion/publico/es/bib/144989.do</dc:identifier>
<dc:language>spa</dc:language>
<dc:rights xml:lang="es">InC - http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/</dc:rights>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Gerencia de riesgos</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Métodos de análisis</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Cálculo de probabilidades</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Desarrollo humano</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Prevención de riesgos</dc:subject>
<dc:subject xml:lang="es">Estimación</dc:subject>
<dc:type xml:lang="es">Artículos y capítulos</dc:type>
<dc:title xml:lang="es">Evaluating methods for estimating existential risks</dc:title>
<dc:relation xml:lang="es">En: Risk analysis : an international journal. - McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015 = ISSN 0272-4332. - 07/10/2013 Volumen 33 Número 10 - octubre 2013 , p. 1772-1787</dc:relation>
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