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Modeling risk-related knowledge in tunneling projects

Recurso electrónico / electronic resource
Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
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005  20140530113649.0
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24500‎$a‎Modeling risk-related knowledge in tunneling projects‎$c‎Ibsen Chivatá Cárdenas...[et.al]
520  ‎$a‎Knowledge on failure events and their associated factors, gained from past construction projects, is regarded as potentially extremely useful in risk management. However, a number of circumstances are constraining its wider use. Such knowledge is usually scarce, seldom documented, and even unavailable when it is required. Further, there exists a lack of proven methods to integrate and analyze it in a cost-effective way. This article addresses possible options to overcome these difficulties. Focusing on limited but critical potential failure events, the article demonstrates how knowledge on a number of important potential failure events in tunnel works can be integrated. The problem of unavailable or incomplete information was addressed by gathering judgments from a group of experts. The elicited expert knowledge consisted of failure scenarios and associated probabilistic information. This information was integrated using Bayesian belief-networks-based models that were first customized in order to deal with the expected divergence in judgments caused by epistemic uncertainty of risks. The work described in the article shows that the developed models that integrate risk-related knowledge provide guidance as to the use of specific remedial measures.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080612238‎$a‎Proyectos de ingeniería
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080596866‎$a‎Gestión de proyectos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20100065242‎$a‎Teorema de Bayes
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20140008995‎$a‎Chivatá Cárdenas, Ibsen
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000345‎$t‎Risk analysis : an international journal‎$d‎McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015‎$x‎0272-4332‎$g‎03/02/2014 Volumen 34 Número 2 - febrero 2014 , p. 323-339