Centro de Documentación de Fundación MAPFRE - Impacts of weather and time horizon selection on crop insurance ratemaking : a conditional distribution approach

Notas: Sumario: An important issue in the agricultural risk and actuarial literatures is the extent to which sample period selection affects the accuracy of insurance rating. This is typically more problematic in agriculture than in other types of insurance because of the variation in weather through time. A conditional Weibull distribution approach is developed that explicitly models the interaction of weather, technology, and other variables on probabilistic yield outcomes to address this issue. Results from an application with an extensive producer-level yield dataset representing commercial-scale Illinois firms suggest that the impact of weather heterogeneity on risk estimation across reasonable samples is likely not as great as is often claimed. The results also suggest that yield risk is decreasing significantly through time and indicate the presence of trend acceleration. A rating analysis indicates that violations in the risk evolution assumptions of the rating approaches used in the Federal Crop Insurance Program which implicitly assume increasing yield risk through time when yields trendresult in severely biased rates, with typical overstatements of 200% to 400% for Midwest corn.Registros relacionados: En: North American actuarial journal. - Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997- = ISSN 1092-0277. - 02/06/2014 Tomo 18 Número 2 - 2014 , p. 279-293Materia / lugar / evento: Matemática del seguro Seguros agrarios Gerencia de riesgos Climatología Evaluación de riesgos Estimación Casos prácticos Estados Unidos Outras classificações: 6

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