Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs

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<title>Accuracy of long-range actuarial projections of health care costs</title>
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<dateIssued encoding="marc">2016</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The Office of the Actuary, mandated to provide projections of future medical spending for use by the U.S. Medicare and Medicaid programs, publishes forecasts that have been widely used by private firms and government budget officials as a baseline for expected long-run premium trends and to estimate liabilities for retiree health benefits. Although these projections have been made publicly available since 1986, they have not yet been subject to systematic evaluation by an external reviewer. This article develops a method for assessment of both short- and long-run accuracy and applies it to the 17 sets of projections have been made public over the last 25 years.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Thomas E. Getzen</note>
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<topic>Matemática del seguro</topic>
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<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
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<topic>Predicciones estadísticas</topic>
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<topic>Gastos médicos</topic>
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<topic>Medicaid</topic>
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<topic>Medicare</topic>
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<topic>Presupuestos Generales del Estado</topic>
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<topic>Tendencias</topic>
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<topic>Proyecciones</topic>
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<geographic>Estados Unidos</geographic>
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<title>North American actuarial journal</title>
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<publisher>Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">1092-0277</identifier>
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<part>
<text>01/06/2016 Tomo 20 Número 2 - 2016 , p. 101-113</text>
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