2020-21: defending growth at all costs. Economic, Capital Markets and Industry Research
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<subfield code="a">1. Global economic growth to remain muted in 2021-21 after bottoming out at the turn of 2019 -- 2. US-China trade tensions should not escalate, nor de-escalate much further in 2020 -- 3. The US to further explore higher public and corporate debt when face with electoral uncertainty -- 4. The global economy cannot rely on a new Chinese bazooka stimulus -- 5. Eurozone growth below potential at +1.0% and +1.3% in 2020-21 respectively -- 6. Monetary policy is the safety net for growth and markets. Mind negative spillovers -- 7. Persistently high social discontent will call for fiscal policies to become more redistributive -- 8. Domestic sectors will continue to outperform -- 9. (Unusually) low volatility and correlation between asset classes for longer -- 10. A -4% depreciation of the Dollar depreciation is expected to support Emerging Markets assets </subfield>
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