Scorecard of EM COVID-19 preparedness : economic views
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<subfield code="a">In the last few weeks, we analyzed the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on emerging markets from different angles. We see global activity falling more than 1% this year, with major developed markets in recession. Emerging markets, which were already struggling to grow, will suffer heavily. We are especially concerned about countries entering the shock under high external and fiscal vulnerability (eg, South Africa) and places where cumulative growth underperformance is staggering (eg, Mexico). Uncertainty around growth forecasts is high but the scale of capital outflows since late January makes deep recessions in EM hard to avoid.</subfield>
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