Economic Insights Annual compendium 2021

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      <subfield code="a">This year's narrative has been a cyclical rebound from the pandemic-induced slump of 2020. In an early Economic Insights (EI) of 2021, we cautioned that rebound does not equal recovery and indeed, as the year draws to a close, the world economy is by no means out of the pandemic woods yet. The COVID-19 experience has inflicted Deepstructural damage to economies that will take time to repair. This underpins our forecasts of slowing global growth in 2022 and 2023. With this year's cyclical economic rebound, insurance demand has held up well. Ongoing hard market conditions in non-life will continue to support growth, and demand will also benefit from rising risk awareness as a consequence of the pandemic. Another outcome of the pandemic has been an acceleration of the shift of daily-life transactions to digital, including online purchasing of insurance. There has been a ramping up of inflationary pressures this year we see high prices as the top macro risk for next year. In the extreme, sustained price pressures raise stagflation risks, although such is not our baseline scenario. Higher inflation poses market risks also in that with interest rates set to remain low, sovereign bonds will yield negative real rates. At the same time, if high inflation were to trigger a sudden and unexpected tightening in financial conditions, high asset prices could reverse.</subfield>
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