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The Economic outlook darkens

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
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003  MAP
005  20220308151118.0
008  220308s2022 deu|||| ||| ||eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
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1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20220002356‎$a‎Mueller, Charlotte
24514‎$a‎The Economic outlook darkens‎$c‎Charlotte Mueller, Diana Van Der Watt
260  ‎$a‎Zurich‎$b‎Swiss Re Institute‎$c‎2022
300  ‎$a‎2 p.
4900 ‎$a‎Issue 4/2022
520  ‎$a‎The global economic outlook has worsened, even from our former below-consensus growth and above-consensus inflation forecasts. The ramifications of the conflict in Ukraine raise global uncertainty to a new level. We see higher likelihood of stagflation and recessionary outcomes resulting from the energy price shock, as the shock transitions from moderate to severe. Given its energy dependency on Russia, the immediate impact is larger for the euro area than US. We estimate that the energy price shock alone could lead to at least 1 to 2 percentage points (ppt) lower GDP growth and at least 1 to 2ppt higher inflation in the euro area. While energy is the primary channel today, we expect weaker financial conditions and consumer sentiment to drag on growth soon.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080546915‎$a‎Economía
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080600648‎$a‎Crecimiento económico
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080611897‎$a‎Perspectivas económicas
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20090040410‎$a‎Recesión económica
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080543808‎$a‎Energía
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080584221‎$a‎Conflictos armados
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080541224‎$a‎Guerra
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20220002349‎$a‎Van Der Watt, Diana
7102 ‎$0‎MAPA20170013402‎$a‎Swiss Re Institute