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Strong fundamentals contrast rising volatility and heightened uncertainty around extent of rate cuts

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      <subfield code="a">Growth: normalisation progresses. Upside risk to full-year growth in US and Europe after a strong 2Q24, even though economic momentum is set to soften in 2H24. Inflation: disinflation on track, but some turbulence ahead. Reverse base effects will feed inflation volatility in 2H24, but we continue to expect a steady return to 2% targets. Interest rates: renewed focus on labour markets. Recent employment softening adds upside risk to our US rate call for this year</subfield>
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