Pesquisa de referências

Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis

Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20150030009
003  MAP
005  20150924175822.0
008  150916e20150701esp|||p |0|||b|spa d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎7
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20150015013‎$a‎Montibeller, Gilberto
24510‎$a‎Cognitive and motivational biases in decision and risk analysis‎$c‎Gilberto Montibeller, Detlof von Winterfeldt
520  ‎$a‎Behavioral decision research has demonstrated that judgments and decisions of ordinary people and experts are subject to numerous biases. Decision and risk analysis were designed to improve judgments and decisions and to overcome many of these biases. However, when eliciting model components and parameters from decisionmakers or experts, analysts often face the very biases they are trying to help overcome. When these inputs are biased they can seriously reduce the quality of the model and resulting analysis. Some of these biases are due to faulty cognitive processes; some are due to motivations for preferred analysis outcomes. This article identifies the cognitive and motivational biases that are relevant for decision and risk analysis because they can distort analysis inputs and are difficult to correct. We also review and provide guidance about the existing debiasing techniques to overcome these biases. In addition, we describe some biases that are less relevant because they can be corrected by using logic or decomposing the elicitation task. We conclude the article with an agenda for future research
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000345‎$t‎Risk analysis : an international journal‎$d‎McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015‎$x‎0272-4332‎$g‎01/07/2015 Volumen 35 Número 7 - julio 2015
856  ‎$y‎MÁS INFORMACIÓN‎$u‎mailto:centrodocumentacion@fundacionmapfre.org?subject=Consulta%20de%20una%20publicaci%C3%B3n%20&body=Necesito%20m%C3%A1s%20informaci%C3%B3n%20sobre%20este%20documento%3A%20%0A%0A%5Banote%20aqu%C3%AD%20el%20titulo%20completo%20del%20documento%20del%20que%20desea%20informaci%C3%B3n%20y%20nos%20pondremos%20en%20contacto%20con%20usted%5D%20%0A%0AGracias%20%0A