Evaluating life expectancy evaluations

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<title>Evaluating life expectancy evaluations</title>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">The quality of life expectancy estimates is one key consideration for an investor in life settlements. The predominant metric for assessing this quality is the so-called A-to-E ratio, which relies on a comparison of the actual to the predicted number of deaths. In this article, we explain key issues with this metric: In the short run, it is subject to estimation uncertainty for small and moderately sized portfolios; and, more critically, in the long run, it converges to 100% even if the underwriting is systematically biased. As an alternative, we propose and discuss a set of new metrics based on the difference in (temporary) life expectancies. We examine the underwriting quality of a leading U.S. life expectancy provider based on this new methodology</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Daniel Bauer...[et al.]</note>
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<topic>Esperanza de vida</topic>
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<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
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<geographic>Estados Unidos</geographic>
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<title>North American actuarial journal</title>
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<publisher>Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">1092-0277</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000239</identifier>
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<text>04/06/2018 Tomo 22 Número 2 - 2018 , p. 198-209</text>
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