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Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models : A modified time-transformation approach

MARC record
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001  MAP20150002365
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005  20150122171254.0
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040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
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1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20150002846‎$a‎Saeed Ahmadi, Seyed
24510‎$a‎Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models‎$b‎: A modified time-transformation approach‎$c‎Seyed Saeed Ahmadi, Johnny Siu-Hang Li
520  ‎$a‎In this paper, we propose an alternative approach for forecasting mortality for multiple populations jointly. Our contribution is developed upon the generalized linear models introduced by Renshaw et al., (1996) and Sithole et al., (2000), in which mortality forecasts are generated within the model structure, without the need of additional stochastic processes. To ensure that the resulting forecasts are coherent, a modified time-transformation is developed to stipulate the expected mortality differential between two populations to remain constant when the long-run equilibrium is attained. The model is then further extended to incorporate a structural change, an important property that is observed in the historical mortality data of many national populations. The proposed modeling methods are illustrated with data from two different pairs of populations: (1) Swedish and Danish males; (2) English and Welsh males and U.K. male insured lives.
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077100574‎$t‎Insurance : mathematics and economics‎$d‎Oxford : Elsevier, 1990-‎$x‎0167-6687‎$g‎03/11/2014 Volumen 59 Número 1 - noviembre 2014
856  ‎$y‎MÁS INFORMACIÓN‎$u‎mailto:centrodocumentacion@fundacionmapfre.org?subject=Consulta%20de%20una%20publicaci%C3%B3n%20&body=Necesito%20m%C3%A1s%20informaci%C3%B3n%20sobre%20este%20documento%3A%20%0A%0A%5Banote%20aqu%C3%AD%20el%20titulo%20completo%20del%20documento%20del%20que%20desea%20informaci%C3%B3n%20y%20nos%20pondremos%20en%20contacto%20con%20usted%5D%20%0A%0AGracias%20%0A