Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE - Evaluating life expectancy evaluations

Notes: Sumario: The quality of life expectancy estimates is one key consideration for an investor in life settlements. The predominant metric for assessing this quality is the so-called A-to-E ratio, which relies on a comparison of the actual to the predicted number of deaths. In this article, we explain key issues with this metric: In the short run, it is subject to estimation uncertainty for small and moderately sized portfolios; and, more critically, in the long run, it converges to 100% even if the underwriting is systematically biased. As an alternative, we propose and discuss a set of new metrics based on the difference in (temporary) life expectancies. We examine the underwriting quality of a leading U.S. life expectancy provider based on this new methodologyRelated records: En: North American actuarial journal. - Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997- = ISSN 1092-0277. - 04/06/2018 Tomo 22 Número 2 - 2018 , p. 198-209Materia / lugar / evento: Esperanza de vida Cálculo actuarial Estados Unidos Other categories: 6

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