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Improving the forecast of longevity by combining models

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20190021159
003  MAP
005  20190715150854.0
008  190708e20190603usa|||p |0|||b|eng d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
24500‎$a‎Improving the forecast of longevity by combining models‎$c‎Giovanna Apicella... [et al]
300  ‎$a‎23 p.
520  ‎$a‎Mortality is a dynamic process whose future evolution over time poses important challenges for life insurance, pension funds, public policy, and fiscal planning. In this paper, we propose two contributions: (1) a new dynamic corrective methodology of the predictive accuracy of the existing mortality projection models, b modeling a measure of their fitting errors as a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process and; (2) various out-of-sample validation methods. Besides the usual static method, we develop a dynamic one allowing us to catch the change in behavior of the underlying data. For our numerical application, we choose the Cairns-Blake-Dowd (or M5) model. Using the Italian and French females mortality data and implementing the backtesting procedure, we empirically test the ex-post forecasting performance of the CBD model both for itself (CBD) and corrected by the CIR process (mCBD). We focus on age 65, but we show results for a wide range of ages, also much younger, and for cohort data. On the basis of average measures of forecasting errors and information criteria, we show that the mCBD model is parsimonious and provides better results in terms of predictive accuracy than the CBD model itself.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080555016‎$a‎Longevidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080555306‎$a‎Mortalidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080570590‎$a‎Seguro de vida
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20190009546‎$a‎Modelo Cairns-Blake-Dowd (CBD)
650  ‎$0‎MAPA20200021438‎$a‎Ageingnomics. Economia senior
7001 ‎$0‎MAPA20190009539‎$a‎Apicella, Giovanna
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000239‎$t‎North American actuarial journal‎$d‎Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-‎$x‎1092-0277‎$g‎03/06/2019 Tomo 23 Número 2 - 2019 , p. 298-319