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Analyzing mortality bond indexes via hierarchical forecast reconciliation

Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
MARC record
Tag12Value
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20190032148
003  MAP
005  20191106164142.0
008  191106e20190902esp|||p |0|||b|spa d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20190015172‎$a‎Li, Han
24510‎$a‎Analyzing mortality bond indexes via hierarchical forecast reconciliation‎$c‎Li Han, Qihe Tang
520  ‎$a‎In recent decades, there has been significant growth in the capital market for mortality- and longevity-linked bonds. Therefore, modeling and forecasting the mortality indexes underlying these bonds have crucial implications for risk management in life insurance companies. In this paper, we propose a hierarchical reconciliation approach to constructing probabilistic forecasts for mortality bond indexes. We apply this approach to analyzing the Swiss Re Kortis bond, which is the first longevity trend bond introduced in the market. We express the longevity divergence index associated with the bond's principal reduction factor (PRF) in a hierarchical setting. We first adopt time-series models to obtain forecasts on each hierarchical level, and then apply a minimum trace reconciliation approach to ensure coherence of forecasts across all levels. Based on the reconciled probabilistic forecasts of the longevity divergence index, we estimate the probability distribution of the PRF of the Kortis bond, and compare our results with those stated in Standard and Poor's report on pre-sale information. We also illustrate the strong performance of the approach by comparing the reconciled forecasts with unreconciled forecasts as well as those from the bottom-up approach and the optimal combination approach. Finally, we provide first insights on the interest spread of the Kortis bond throughout its risk period 20102016.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080555306‎$a‎Mortalidad
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080611613‎$a‎Modelos probabílisticos
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000420‎$t‎Astin bulletin‎$d‎Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association‎$x‎0515-0361‎$g‎02/09/2019 Volumen 49 Número 3 - septiembre 2019 , p. 823-846