Designing a cyber catastrophe : a guide to the thought process behind creating cyber disaster scenarios

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      <subfield code="a">Designing a cyber catastrophe</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">The creation of risk scenarios is one of the most important, complex and (for many) interesting aspects of risk management in the insurance sector. As a means of stress testing insurance portfolios and markets, the method is certainly not perfect. Nonetheless, the stress test serves as an important tool in an insurer's arsenal, allowing planning and management for future financial risk in the face of rapid change. Indeed, since the financial crisis of 2009, scenario testing by financial regulators has become a common supervisory concept. In cyber insurance, in particular, rapid change is coupled with a relatively young industry that businesses and criminals alike are keen to embrace in order to derive advantage. This creates both opportunity and risk for insurers: Data is key and the application of that data in order to predict and manage risk could mean the difference between success and failure. This paper seeks to educate those who are not risk scenario experts or would like to further their understanding of the topic. It acts as a summary of what our practitioners have learned during the collective years of experience derived through the building of scenarios and seeks to serve that knowledge with the lay-person in mind, avoiding deep modeling theory or mathematics and focusing on the basic theory and concept behind scenario construction.</subfield>
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