Centro de Documentacion de Fundación MAPFRE

MAP20080014711

Risk analysis / David Vose. — 3ed. ed. — London : John Wiley & Sons, cop. 2008

XIV, 735 p. ; 25 cm.

Sumario: Why do a risk analysis? -- Planning a risk analysis -- The quality of a risk analysis -- Choice of model structure -- Understanding and using the results of a risk analysis -- Probability mathematics and simulation -- Building and running a model -- Some basic random processes -- Data and statistics -- Fitting distributions to data -- Sums of random variables -- Forecasting with uncertainty -- Modelling correlation and dependencies -- Elicitig from expert opinion -- Testing and modelling causal relationships -- Optimisation in risk analysis -- Checking and validating a model -- Discounted cashflow modelling -- Project risk analysis -- Insurance and finance risk analysis modelling -- Microbial food safety risk assessment -- Animal import risk assessment

ISBN 978-0-470-51284-5

1. Análisis de riesgos . 2. Modelos de simulación . 3. Simulación Monte Carlo . 4. Incertidumbre . 5. Gerencia de riesgos . I. Título.