Why risk analysis is difficult, and some thoughts on how to proceed

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<title>Why risk analysis is difficult, and some thoughts on how to proceed</title>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Risk analysis is challenged in three ways by uncertainty. Our understanding of the world and its uncertainties is evolving; indeterminism is an inherent part of the open universe in which we live; and learning from experience involves untestable assumptions. We discuss several concepts of robustness as tools for responding to these epistemological challenges. The use of models is justified, even though they are known to err. A concept of robustness is illustrated in choosing between a conventional technology and an innovative, promising, but more uncertain technology. We explain that nonprobabilistic robust decisions are sometimes good probabilistic bets. Info-gap and worst-case concepts of robustness are compared. Finally, we examine the exploitation of favorable but uncertain opportunities and its relation to robust decision making.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Yakov Ben-Haim</note>
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<topic>Gerencia de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Análisis de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Toma de decisiones</topic>
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<topic>Métodos de análisis</topic>
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<title>Risk analysis : an international journal</title>
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<publisher>McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0272-4332</identifier>
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<text>08/10/2012 Volumen 32 Número 10  - octubre 2012 , p. 1638-1646</text>
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