Búsqueda

Decision making for group risk reduction : dealing with epistemic uncertainty

Recurso electrónico / electronic resource
Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
LDR  00000cab a2200000 4500
001  MAP20130038155
003  MAP
005  20140121165344.0
008  131115e20131007esp|||p |0|||b|spa d
040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎7
1001 ‎$0‎MAPA20130016474‎$a‎Bedford, Tim
24510‎$a‎Decision making for group risk reduction‎$b‎: dealing with epistemic uncertainty‎$c‎Tim Bedford
520  ‎$a‎Group risk is usually represented by FN curves showing the frequency of different accident sizes for a given activity. Many governments regulate group risk through FN criterion lines, which define the tolerable location of an FN curve. However, to compare different risk reduction alternatives, one must be able to rank FN curves. The two main problems in doing this are that the FN curve contains multiple frequencies, and that there are usually large epistemic uncertainties about the curve. Since the mid 1970s, a number of authors have used the concept of disutility to summarize FN curves in which a family of disutility functions was defined with a single parameter controlling the degree of risk aversion. Here, we show it to be risk neutral, disaster averse, and insensitive to epistemic uncertainty on accident frequencies. A new approach is outlined that has a number of attractive properties. The formulation allows us to distinguish between risk aversion and disaster aversion, two concepts that have been confused in the literature until now. A two-parameter family of disutilities generalizing the previous approach is defined, where one parameter controls risk aversion and the other disaster aversion. The family is sensitive to epistemic uncertainties. Such disutilities may, for example, be used to compare the impact of system design changes on group risks, or might form the basis for valuing reductions in group risk in a cost-benefit analysis.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080591182‎$a‎Gerencia de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080603038‎$a‎Prevención de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080586348‎$a‎Métodos de cálculo
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080598631‎$a‎Reducción de riesgos
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080588434‎$a‎Toma de decisiones
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000345‎$t‎Risk analysis : an international journal‎$d‎McLean, Virginia : Society for Risk Analysis, 1987-2015‎$x‎0272-4332‎$g‎07/10/2013 Volumen 33 Número 10 - octubre 2013 , p. 1884-1898