Counterfactual disaster risk analysis : reimagining history

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<title>Counterfactual disaster risk analysis</title>
<subTitle>: reimagining history</subTitle>
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<namePart>Woo, Gordon</namePart>
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<namePart>Seria, Junaid</namePart>
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<namePart>Lloyd's</namePart>
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<publisher>Lloyd's</publisher>
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<dateIssued>2017</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">This report explains how a kind of lateral thinking, called counterfactual, can be applied to complement insurers' risk analyzes. It addresses how, in practice, a down counterfactual analysis can be carried out, taking into account events that could have ended in huge disasters, serving as a starting point in the future investigation of counterfactual events and their characteristics.
According to Lloyd's, down counterfactual thinking offers multiple advantages to insurers, "The fact that downside counterfactual events are anchored to actual historical experiences helps to explain the complexity of future risks and the uncertainty models to be developed, to get to know them in greater depth and to communicate them in a more coherent way to the members of the boards of directors, the borrowers, the decision makers, the risk managers, etc. "</abstract>
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<note type="statement of responsibility">Trevor Maynard, Gordon Woo, Junaid Seria</note>
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<topic>Gerencia de riesgos</topic>
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<topic>Análisis de riesgos</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080613105">
<topic>Análisis probabilísticos</topic>
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<topic>Riesgos emergentes</topic>
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<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20170014379">
<topic>Análisis contrafactual del riesgo</topic>
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<title>Emerging Risk Report 2017</title>
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