MENA update : twin shocks: COVID-19 and punging oil prices

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<title>MENA update</title>
<subTitle>: twin shocks: COVID-19 and punging oil prices</subTitle>
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<namePart>Iradian, Garbis </namePart>
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<namePart>Rosenthal, Jonah </namePart>
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<publisher>The Institute of International Finance</publisher>
<dateIssued>2020</dateIssued>
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<abstract displayLabel="Summary">Our MENA growth forecast now stands at -0.3 percent with additional downside risks. Uncertainty is high regarding the duration of the shutdown and the scope for an additional fall on oil prices. We project recessions in most oil exporters and the lowest growth in oil importers since the early 1990s. MENA's current account is set to shift from a surplus of $28 bn in 2019 to a deficit of $92 bn in 2020 with the fiscal deficit widening from 3.7% of GDP in 2019 to 8.8% in 2020. The fall in non-resident capital inflows will be more than offset by the drop in resident outflows.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Garbis Iradian, Jonah Rosenthal</note>
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<topic>COVID-19</topic>
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<topic>Petróleo</topic>
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<geographic>Oriente Medio</geographic>
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<geographic>Africa del Norte</geographic>
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