One-year premium risk and emergence pattern of ultimate loss based on conditional distribution

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><modsCollection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/mods/v3 http://www.loc.gov/standards/mods/v3/mods-3-8.xsd">
<mods version="3.8">
<titleInfo>
<title>One-year premium risk and emergence pattern of ultimate loss based on conditional distribution</title>
</titleInfo>
<name type="personal" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20200013464">
<namePart>Szatkowski, Marcin </namePart>
<nameIdentifier>MAPA20200013464</nameIdentifier>
</name>
<typeOfResource>text</typeOfResource>
<genre authority="marcgt">periodical</genre>
<originInfo>
<place>
<placeTerm type="code" authority="marccountry">bel</placeTerm>
</place>
<dateIssued encoding="marc">2020</dateIssued>
<issuance>serial</issuance>
</originInfo>
<language>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">eng</languageTerm>
</language>
<physicalDescription>
<form authority="marcform">print</form>
</physicalDescription>
<abstract displayLabel="Summary">We study the relation between one-year premium risk and ultimate premium risk. In practice, the one-year risk is sometimes related to the ultimate risk by using a so-called emergence pattern formula which postulates a linear relation between both risks. We define the true emergence pattern of the ultimate loss for the one-year premium risk based on a conditional distribution of the ultimate loss derived from a multivariate distribution of the claims development process. We investigate three models commonly used in claims reserving and prove that the true emergence pattern formulas are different from the linear emergence pattern formula used in practice. We show that the one-year risk, when measured by VaR, can be under and overestimated if the linear emergence pattern formula is applied. We present two modifications of the linear emergence pattern formula. These modifications allow us to go beyond the claims development models investigated in the first part and work with an arbitrary distribution of the ultimate loss.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Lukasz Delong, Marcin Szatkowski</note>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080579258">
<topic>Cálculo actuarial</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080564254">
<topic>Solvencia II</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20090039629">
<topic>Riesgo actuarial</topic>
</subject>
<subject xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xlink:href="MAPA20080581886">
<topic>Primas de seguros</topic>
</subject>
<classification authority="">6</classification>
<relatedItem type="host">
<titleInfo>
<title>Astin bulletin</title>
</titleInfo>
<originInfo>
<publisher>Belgium : ASTIN and AFIR Sections of the International Actuarial Association</publisher>
</originInfo>
<identifier type="issn">0515-0361</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000420</identifier>
<part>
<text>01/05/2020 Volumen 50 Número 2 - mayo 2020 , p. 479-511</text>
</part>
</relatedItem>
<recordInfo>
<recordContentSource authority="marcorg">MAP</recordContentSource>
<recordCreationDate encoding="marc">200604</recordCreationDate>
<recordChangeDate encoding="iso8601">20200610090151.0</recordChangeDate>
<recordIdentifier source="MAP">MAP20200019091</recordIdentifier>
<languageOfCataloging>
<languageTerm type="code" authority="iso639-2b">spa</languageTerm>
</languageOfCataloging>
</recordInfo>
</mods>
</modsCollection>