2025 Economic and industry outlook

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      <subfield code="a">The 2025 edition of the report presents an analysis of the global economic outlook and its impact on the insurance industry. In 2024, the world economy showed resilience, with growth close to potential, despite geopolitical uncertainties and divergences between developed and emerging economies. Disinflation allowed for greater flexibility in monetary policy, although risks persist in inflation and fiscal sustainability. For 2025, Donald Trump's second administration in the United States will bring changes in trade, immigration, fiscal, energy and defense policies, with possible global economic repercussions. In the baseline scenario, global GDP will slow moderately to 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026, with inflation of 3.5% and 3.0%, respectively. In a stressed scenario, growth would fall to 2.9% and 2.8%, while inflation would rise to 3.7% and 3.5%. At the sector level, monetary easing will benefit the insurance industry. In the Eurozone, economic weakness will impact the sector, except in Spain, which has a favorable outlook. In emerging markets such as Brazil and Mexico, low insurance penetration and economic growth will drive demand, while Argentina and Turkey show signs of recovery</subfield>
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