Coleção: ArtigosTítulo: A General procedure for constructing mortality models / Andrew Hunt, David BlakeAutor: Hunt, AndrewNotas: Sumario: Recently a large number of new mortality models have been proposed to analyze historic mortality rates and project them into the future. Many of these suffer from being over-parametrized or have terms added in an ad hoc manner that cannot be justified in terms of demographic significance. In addition, poor specification of a model can lead to period effects in the data being wrongly attributed to cohort effects, which results in the model making implausible projections. We present a general procedure for constructing mortality models using a combination of a toolkit of functions and expert judgment. By following the general procedure, it is possible to identify sequentially every significant demographic feature in the data and give it a parametric structural form. We demonstrate using U.K. mortality data that the general procedure produces a relatively parsimonious model that nevertheless has a good fit to the data.Registros relacionados: En: North American actuarial journal. - Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997- = ISSN 1092-0277. - 03/02/2014 Tomo 18 Número 1 - 2014 Outras classificações: 7Direitos: In Copyright (InC)Referencias externas:
