Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models : A modified time-transformation approach

<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xsi:schemaLocation="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim http://www.loc.gov/standards/marcxml/schema/MARC21slim.xsd">
  <record>
    <leader>00000cab a2200000   4500</leader>
    <controlfield tag="001">MAP20150002365</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="003">MAP</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="005">20150122171254.0</controlfield>
    <controlfield tag="008">150113e20141103esp|||p      |0|||b|spa d</controlfield>
    <datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">MAP</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">spa</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">MAP</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">6</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="0">MAPA20150002846</subfield>
      <subfield code="a">Saeed Ahmadi, Seyed</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0">
      <subfield code="a">Coherent mortality forecasting with generalized linear models</subfield>
      <subfield code="b">: A modified time-transformation approach</subfield>
      <subfield code="c">Seyed Saeed Ahmadi, Johnny Siu-Hang Li</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="a">In this paper, we propose an alternative approach for forecasting mortality for multiple populations jointly. Our contribution is developed upon the generalized linear models introduced by Renshaw et al., (1996) and Sithole et al., (2000), in which mortality forecasts are generated within the model structure, without the need of additional stochastic processes. To ensure that the resulting forecasts are coherent, a modified time-transformation is developed to stipulate the expected mortality differential between two populations to remain constant when the long-run equilibrium is attained. The model is then further extended to incorporate a structural change, an important property that is observed in the historical mortality data of many national populations. The proposed modeling methods are illustrated with data from two different pairs of populations: (1) Swedish and Danish males; (2) English and Welsh males and U.K. male insured lives.</subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="773" ind1="0" ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="w">MAP20077100574</subfield>
      <subfield code="t">Insurance : mathematics and economics</subfield>
      <subfield code="d">Oxford : Elsevier, 1990-</subfield>
      <subfield code="x">0167-6687</subfield>
      <subfield code="g">03/11/2014 Volumen 59 Número 1 - noviembre 2014 </subfield>
    </datafield>
    <datafield tag="856" ind1=" " ind2=" ">
      <subfield code="y">MÁS INFORMACIÓN</subfield>
      <subfield code="u">mailto:centrodocumentacion@fundacionmapfre.org?subject=Consulta%20de%20una%20publicaci%C3%B3n%20&body=Necesito%20m%C3%A1s%20informaci%C3%B3n%20sobre%20este%20documento%3A%20%0A%0A%5Banote%20aqu%C3%AD%20el%20titulo%20completo%20del%20documento%20del%20que%20desea%20informaci%C3%B3n%20y%20nos%20pondremos%20en%20contacto%20con%20usted%5D%20%0A%0AGracias%20%0A</subfield>
    </datafield>
  </record>
</collection>