World insurance in 2025 : a riskier, more fragmented world order

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      <subfield code="a"> Key takeaways --  Macroeconomic environment for insurers -- Trends in the global insurance markets --  Appendix I: premium developments by region </subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">Global growth is slowing at a time of large macroeconomic regime shifts. Extreme policy uncertainty is set to persist, the main driver being US goods tariffs. Trade wars and protectionism leave no winners, and firms and consumers face greater risks, including more volatile exchange rates and asset prices. For all primary insurance lines of business, growth will be slower this year after a strong 2024. However, both life and non-life will continue to see resilient profitability. We expect US tariffs to have the greatest and most direct impact on non-life claims severity in the US, most notably in US motor and construction. Outside the US, tariffs are more likely to be disinflationary, reducing pressure on claims</subfield>
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