Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030

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      <subfield code="a">Projections of global mortality and burden of disease from 2002 to 2030</subfield>
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      <subfield code="a">These projections represent a set of three visions of the future for population health, based on certain explicit assumptions. Despite the wide uncertainty ranges around future projections, they enable us to appreciate better the implications for health and health policy of currently observed trends, and the likely impact of fairly certain future trends, such as the ageing of the population, and the continuation of the epidemiological transition in developing countries. The results depend strongly on the assumption that future mortality trands in poor countries will have a relationship to economic and social development similar to those that have occurred in the higher-income countries </subfield>
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      <subfield code="g">Vol. 3, nº 11, November 2006 ; p. 2011-2030</subfield>
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