Economic and industry outlook 2020

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      <subfield code="a">2020 is expected to be the year in which global economic growth stabilizes at low levels, similar to 2019, taking steps towards convergence, with rates similar to those recorded in the last five-year period, close to global potential. Differential contributions will come from emerging countries, thanks to more benign financial conditions and improved exchange terms primarily for agricultural raw materials. Developed markets will avoid greater deceleration thanks to the reactivation of very lax monetary policies, although their convenience at this point in the cycle is open for debate. Growth will be tenuous and above all fragile, given the known and unknown risks looming over the global panorama, specifically those coming from financial imbalances and the recent developments in global geopolitics. The path to deceleration in which the global economy is currently immersed is affecting the development of the insurance business, specifically the Non-Life and Life Protection segments, which are slowing down on an aggregate level. The generalized application of accommodative monetary policies are helping to stop this trend and could contribute to reverting the situation, but they have locked interest rates at absolute low levels in developed countries and relative low levels in emerging countries, compared to levels reached in previous years. This situation, along with the deceleration of economic growth, limits the development of the traditional Life Savings and Annuity businesses. However, the positive behavior of stock markets constitutes a stimulus for Life insurance products in which the policyholder bears the investment risk, in those countries in which these types of products have reached a significant weight
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