Forecasting mortgage securitization risk under systematic risk and parameter uncertainty

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<title>Forecasting mortgage securitization risk under systematic risk and parameter uncertainty</title>
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<namePart>Rösch, Daniel</namePart>
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<abstract>The global financial crisis exposed financial institutions to severe unexpected losses in relation to mortgage securitizations and derivatives. This article finds that risk models such as ratings are exposed to a large degree of systematic risk and parameter uncertainty. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise of the financial crisis shows that a simple approach addressing both issues is able to produce ranges for risk measures consistent with realized losses. This explains how financial markets were taken by surprise in relation to realized losses.</abstract>
<note type="statement of responsibility">Daniel Rösch, Harald Scheule</note>
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<title>The Journal of risk and insurance</title>
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<publisher>Nueva York : The American Risk and Insurance Association, 1964-</publisher>
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<identifier type="issn">0022-4367</identifier>
<identifier type="local">MAP20077000727</identifier>
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<text>01/09/2014 Volumen 81 Número 3 - septiembre 2014 </text>
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