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The Impact of systematic trend and uncertainty on mortality and disability in a multistate latent factor model for transition rates
Recurso electrónico / Electronic resource
Registro MARC
Tag12Valor
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005  20180213171131.0
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040  ‎$a‎MAP‎$b‎spa‎$d‎MAP
084  ‎$a‎6
100  ‎$0‎MAPA20180001321‎$a‎Li, Zixi ‌
24514‎$a‎The Impact of systematic trend and uncertainty on mortality and disability in a multistate latent factor model for transition rates‎$c‎Zixi Li, Adam W. Shao, Michael Sherris
520  ‎$a‎Multiple state functional disability models do not generally include systematic trend and uncertainty. We develop and estimate a multistate latent factor intensity model with transition and recovery rates depending on a stochastic frailty factor to capture trend and uncertainty. We estimate the model parameters using U.S. Health and Retirement Study data between 1998 and 2012 with Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation method. The model shows significant reductions in disability and mortality rates during this period and allows us to quantify uncertainty in transition rates arising from the stochastic frailty factor. Recovery rates are very sensitive to the stochastic frailty. There is an increase in expected future lifetimes as well as an increase in future healthy life expectancy. The proportion of lifetime spent in disability on average remains stable with no strong support in the data for either morbidity compression or expansion. The model has widespread application in costing of government-funded aged care and pricing and risk management of long-term-care insurance products.
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080555306‎$a‎Mortalidad ‌
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080579258‎$a‎Cálculo actuarial ‌
650 4‎$0‎MAPA20080602437‎$a‎Matemática del seguro ‌
7730 ‎$w‎MAP20077000239‎$t‎North American actuarial journal‎$d‎Schaumburg : Society of Actuaries, 1997-‎$x‎1092-0277‎$g‎04/12/2017 Tomo 21 Número 4 - 2017 , p.594-610